Key Risks and Governance Challenges

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Effective governance of solar geoengineering (also known as solar radiation modification or SRM) is essential to prevent and address unintended consequences, ensure ethical decision-making, and maintain global stability. Below are key risks and challenges that governance frameworks must address.

Key Risks and Governance Challenges

Rogue Deployment

Unauthorized or unilateral implementation of SRM by a single actor (or group of actors) —such as a country or private entity—without international consensus or oversight.

Potential Challenges:

• Lack of global regulation increases the risk of unilateral actions.
• Geopolitical tensions or conflict may arise under such scenarios. 
• Inadequate scientific oversight may lead to unintended consequences.

Moral Hazard

Moral hazard entails the risk that the prospect or research of SRM could reduce the urgency of emissions reductions and adaptation efforts.

Potential Challenges:

• Policymakers and industries may see SRM as an "easy fix," delaying or deprioritizing meaningful climate action even further.
• Public perception of a technological "safety net" could weaken support for long-term  long-term solutions like emissions reductions and carbon removal.
• SRM research and discourse could divert political attention and funding away from mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Slippery Slope

The slippery slope concern is that small-scale SRM research could gradually lead to large-scale deployment without adequate oversight or societal consent.

Potential Challenges:

• Difficulty in establishing clear stopping points for research and experimentation.
• Potential for incremental growth of research and testing, making future deployment more likely. 
• Risk of governance lagging behind technological advancements.

Unequal Impacts & Climate Justice

The potential for SRM to create regional winners and losers, with some regions/communities benefiting while others experience negative side effects.

Potential Challenges:

• Certain regions could face unintended consequences such as disrupted rainfall patterns, droughts, or extreme weather shifts.
• Vulnerable nations, marginalized groups, and Indigenous peoples may have little say in SRM decision-making, but will likely bear disproportionate risks.
• Ethical concerns over who controls SRM governance development and ultimately how decisions are made.

Termination Shock

Termination shock is the risk of sudden, abrupt cessation of SRM efforts, leading to rapid and extreme climate rebound effects.

Potential Challenges:

• If SRM were stopped suddenly (eg, for political or logistic reasons), global temperatures could rise much faster than natural climate change projections.
• Could result in severe climate disruptions, harming ecosystems and vulnerable communities.
• Requires long-term commitment and governance strategies to manage potential withdrawal.

Lack of Global Coordination

The challenge of establishing effective international agreements and enforcement mechanisms for SRM governance presents a risk itself.

Potential Challenges:

• No existing global legal framework specifically governing SRM.
• Varying national interests and political agendas make cooperation difficult.
• Need for transparent, equitable decision-making structures to prevent geopolitical tensions.

Moving Forward: An Opportunity for Proactive Governance

A well-designed governance framework should:

• Ensure international oversight and accountability to prevent rogue deployment, build monitoring capacities, and create liability structures.
• Include strong safeguards to prevent SRM from reducing climate mitigation efforts.
• Incorporate climate justice principles to protect vulnerable communities.
• Create enforceable agreements on multiple geographic scales to regulate research and potential deployment.

By addressing these risks and challenges early, the global community can ensure that SRM governance remains transparent, responsible, and inclusive.